The residential property market remains a cornerstone of economic stability, serving as a safe haven in uncertain times.
Recent data reflects a market in flux – one where realism, affordability and shifting demographics are shaping the landscape.
According to FNB, the average time homes spend on the market improved slightly in Q4 2024, dipping to 11 weeks from 11.2 weeks in Q3. However, by Q1 2025, this figure had edged up again to 12 weeks and one day. While still below the long-term average of 13 weeks, this fluctuation suggests cautious optimism rather than sustained momentum.
What’s driving the market? Economic pressure is a key factor. In Q4 2024, 26% of sellers cited financial strain as their primary reason for selling – a 3% increase from the previous quarter and well above the 19% average since 2007. This has led to more realistic asking prices, though for many, these adjustments are less a choice and more a necessity.
Key trends defining the market
Downsizing and Affordability: With economic headwinds persisting, many homeowners are opting to downsize. ‘Own what you can afford’ has become a guiding principle, as buyers prioritise financial prudence over aspirational purchases.
First-Time Buyers Leading the Charge: Lightstone’s data reveals a promising trend: nearly 50% of first-time buyers are aged between 30 and 45, while those under 30 account for 14%. Encouragingly, there are now more first-time buyers under 45 than repeat buyers – a sign that South Africans remain committed to homeownership despite economic challenges.
The Rise of Sectional Title: Security and lifestyle benefits are fuelling demand for sectional title properties. Buyers are increasingly drawn to lock-up-and-go convenience, making this segment a standout performer.
Rental Market – Affordability vs Demand: Rental inflation continues to outpace consumer inflation, compounding financial pressure on lower-income households. However, this isn’t happening in isolation. Soaring electricity costs, rising transport expenses and food price hikes – all exacerbated by a weak rand – are forcing tenants to rethink their options.
Many are now saving aggressively for property deposits, with Payprop data showing rental growth stabilising between 4.5% and 5%. The larger the deposit, the better the chances of securing a favourable bond – a strategy more South Africans are adopting to escape the rental trap.
House price growth: Recovery or pause?
Nominal house price growth has shown improvement, but whether this signals a true recovery remains uncertain. Geffen cautions: ‘Our economic landscape is too volatile to call this a definitive upturn. Global factors, like potential Trump tariffs, rand instability and revised growth forecasts, mean we must watch this space closely’.
The Western Cape effect: Lessons in governance
The Western Cape’s consistent rental growth and low vacancy rates offer a blueprint for other provinces. ‘Good governance and efficient service delivery attract investment and residents,’ says Geffen. ‘When people see their rates payments translating into tangible improvements, demand follows.’
However, semigration trends are evolving. While the Western Cape remains a top destination, soaring prices in Cape Town’s metro are pushing buyers toward more affordable inland options. Reverse semigration – and even reverse emigration – are gaining traction as returnees seek value and stability in South Africa’s comparatively affordable property market.
Is now the time to buy?
With interest rates easing slightly, first-time buyers – particularly women, who dominate this segment – are seizing opportunities. ‘Homeownership offers enduring appeal, especially in a market where many are entering for the first time,’ notes Geffen.
‘In addition, ooba had its highest historic national average bond value processed last month, which does indicate the luxury market is back.’
Activity is strongest in the R3m to R5m bracket nationally, though the Western Cape’s sweet spot sits between R4m and R10m. Meanwhile, the luxury market is rebounding, proving its resilience even in uncertain times.
South Africa’s property market is navigating a complex interplay of economic strain, shifting buyer behaviour and regional disparities. Yet, amid the challenges, opportunities remain – for those willing to adapt, research and invest wisely.
As Geffen concludes, ‘Property remains one of the most secure investments, but success hinges on understanding the market’s nuances. Whether buying, selling or renting, realism and strategic planning are key.’
Compiled by: Tauhira Ajam
First published on Cape Town etc
Also see: How first-time buyers are transforming the property market in 2025
