Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is off to a red-hot start in 2025 — the kind of start that could mark the leap from young star to full-blown MVP candidate. While Carroll’s pedigree already included All-Star honors and a National League Rookie of the Year award, what he’s doing early this season signals something more: a player reaching his ceiling — and maybe raising it.
After a 2024 season that fell slightly below expectations, Carroll entered this year with something to prove. Though still productive last season, his OPS+ dropped from 133 in his rookie year to 107, and his WAR fell from 5.3 to 3.4. But through the first month of 2025, he’s looked better than ever — both in results and the advanced metrics that support them.
In 28 games, Carroll is slashing .308/.376/.667, with nine home runs, eight doubles, and an MLB-best four triples. He leads the National League in hits and total bases, with 80 of the latter through April. He’s also a perfect 5-for-5 on stolen bases and continues to avoid grounding into double plays — the kind of attention to detail that rounds out an elite skill set.
While it’s tempting to write this off as a hot streak, Carroll’s underlying numbers suggest otherwise. His expected batting average (.310) ranks in the 93rd percentile across MLB. His expected slugging percentage (.651) sits in the 99th percentile. He’s crushing the ball — his average exit velocity is 94.4 mph (95th percentile), and 58.6% of his batted balls are “hard-hit” (97th percentile). He’s also barreling the ball at an elite rate and ranks in the 98th percentile for max exit velocity at 115.8 mph.
So what changed?
Carroll made significant adjustments to his stance late last season and continued tweaking over the winter. In response to his midseason struggles in 2024, he raised the angle of his bat in his stance, allowing for a smoother loading phase and faster swing initiation. The immediate payoff came in the form of improved numbers in August and September.
But he wasn’t done.
This spring, Carroll also repositioned his hands, reducing excess movement in his swing. The new setup allows him to get the barrel into a “launch-ready” position more quickly, cutting down on unnecessary mechanics. The result: more consistency, more power, and more ability to drive the ball out in front — ideal for generating pull-side fly balls, which tend to yield the highest damage.
The data shows it’s working. Carroll’s average exit velocity has jumped more than five mph compared to last year. He’s also improved his bat speed and is making more fast, efficient swings. One of the biggest signs of progress? He’s pulling the ball in the air far more often — a key trait among power hitters.
Last year, Carroll’s pull rate on fly balls was just 18.1%, ranking 115th out of 240 qualified hitters. This year, that number has jumped to 26.4%, placing him 40th out of 259. That’s a substantial leap in a critical category — and it’s the kind of improvement that often leads to lasting offensive success.
Importantly, Carroll is doing all this without sacrificing his elite speed or plate discipline. He’s still impacting games with his legs and isn’t chasing pitches outside the zone. His ability to combine contact, power, and speed makes him a rare talent — the kind that can carry a franchise deep into October.
Of course, sustainability remains the big question. Even with strong indicators, it’s difficult to keep up an MVP-level pace over six months. But what we’ve seen so far isn’t fluky — it’s the product of real, mechanical changes and better decision-making at the plate.
Carroll entered the 2025 season with a career OPS+ of 121 — strong, but not yet elite. Now, with an OPS+ of 186 through April and a drastically improved batted-ball profile, he’s looking like a top-five hitter in the National League.
That’s exactly what the Diamondbacks need.
Arizona is aiming for more than a playoff spot this year. They believe they have the pieces for a World Series run. And if Corbin Carroll continues on this track, he won’t just be along for the ride — he’ll be driving it.
Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
